No need to insure your life against bird flu. Or there is…
The damage of the insurance companies on a life can make $31-133 billion from the bird’s flu expansion.
Experts of Insurance Information Institute have analyzed a number of scripts of distribution of the bird’s flu and came to a conclusion, that in case of realization of the most pessimistic forecast the sum of claims to the insurance companies will increase to $133 billion in comparison with usual mid-annual parameters. Greatest losses will incur the companies engaged in life insurance.
The pessimistic model of the development of events is constructed by analogy with expansion of regular flu in 1918. More than 600 thousand people have died then in the USA, and from 50 up to 100 million people all over the world. Taking into consideration the changes in demographic situation about 2 million people can die from the bird’s flu in the USA nowadays.
The moderate script developed on the basis of epidemics of 1957 and 1968 when more than 60 thousand and 35 thousand people, accordingly, have died in the USA assumes $31 billion growth of claims to insurers.
It is marked in the report, that development of scientific researches in the field of microbiology and pharmaceutics allows to fight unknown diseases successfully, and usage of modern methods of communication and transportation allows to localize distribution of viruses in very short terms.
However economic relations and development of trade between the countries promotes distribution of a virus infection and methods of vaccination are still insufficiently good to fight against diseases. On the average manufacturing and testing of a vaccine takes about half a year and there is no guarantee of positive result.
Experts of Insurance Information Institute warn that the virus which has appeared presently represents much more greater threat, than unknown illnesses of the beginning of the last century, as it possesses the ability of mutation.
Despite of all the complicity of situation even the pessimistic forecast provides restoration of the market of life insurance approximately in one year.
Insurance Information Institute assumes that financial impact will not become the reason of mass bankruptcies of the insurance companies except for those that are very small.
I don’t consider the world epidemic of the bird’s flu possible. There were too few cases of death from this disease so there are no reasons for panic. The only thing because of what the insurance companies can incur insignificant losses is the reduction of trips to Asian countries as it will lead to reduction of number of the citizens insuring their life for the period of a trip. So while all this is nonsense.